Thursday, February 11th

Equity Market Reversal and Weekly Export Sales weaker for corn, cautiously optimistic for beans


Current market: corn down 1, beans up 1

Yesterday the markets thought the Fed might pass up any additional rate hikes in 2016, today the markets have reversed thought: Asia closed lower, Europe is showing losses at midday and US futures are all down. Crude has continued its slide, now below $27/bbl; US$ is weaker this morning, as well. Rains vary to normal to above-normal across much of Brazil and Argentina over next week and half, and with them the potential to slow harvest.

Export sales this morning didn’t do much to excite the market at re-open: corn sales of 15.9 mbu (trade looking for 31-43 mbu) and bean sales of 24.5 mbu (11-22). There are almost 500 mbu of outstanding corn sales still to be shipped for the year, and corn is needing to average another 24.3 mbu per week heading forward. Japan had 4.5 mbu this week of old crop, but cancelled 2.3 mbu of new crop. Soybeans were above expectations, but we still have 300 mbu of outstanding sales to ship. China bought 25.2 mbu but "Unknown" cancelled 17.2 mbu (likely the Chinese moving business to South America). Soymeal also fell within the range of analysts, but we should see some of those sales drop off as Argentina picks up their meal exports going forward.

Look for grain to continue to remain in its narrow trading range it has been stuck in until we get some more weather concerns out of South America's harvest window or, further until we see spring planting approach.





Disclaimer: This commentary does not represent the views of Tremont Cooperative Grain Company, but rather one author's opinions. Data used in this commentary is taken from sources believed to be accurate, and is intended for informational purposes only and should not be solely used to conduct any type of trading strategy. For more information, please contact Tremont Cooperative Grain Company at 309-925-4981, or email